Monument Cyclist: What Makes a Cyclist a Monument Specialist?

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— In collaboration with Zach Nehr —

In the introductory article, we took a closer look at Cycling Monuments and the development of average speeds. In today’s article, we’ll look at what type of rider is most likely to win specific monuments. 

Lighter riders who excel in the mountains and can recover quickly between stages have an advantage in Grand Tours and overall classifications. Heavier riders may struggle to adapt to the demands of GC-focused racing. Similarly, in Monuments, we can observe the physiological prerequisites for victory.

For this analysis, we look primarily at height, weight, and BMI. While we understand the limitations of this data, the historical results reveal some interesting trends and insights.

All Monuments Are Not Equal

The physiological demands of each cycling Monument are quite different. Monuments should be seen individually, depending on the type of rider. They differ fundamentally in their profiles and climbs. For example, Milano Sanremo is one of flatter Monuments, while Il Lombardia is extremely hilly. 

This means that the flatter Monuments will benefit heavier riders, who can produce higher absolute watts, while the hillier monuments will benefit the lighter riders, who produce higher w/kg.

Why is this so?

On a flat road, raw wattage is generally more important than watts per kilogram. That’s because raw wattage and aerodynamics matter more at higher speeds. On flat roads, watts divided by aerodynamic efficiency (W/CdA) is a better predictor of cycling speed. 

On steep climbs, however, speeds are lower, so aerodynamics and weight matter less. Thus, as the road gets steeper, w/kg becomes a more important performance metric than raw wattage. 

The hillier Monuments, such as Liège–Bastogne–Liège and Il Lombardia, have multiple steep climbs lasting 5-15 minutes. W/kg is more important than pure wattage on these climbs, giving lighter riders the advantage over pure-watt monsters such as Mathieu van der Poel or Wout van Aert. 

MVDP and WVA have the advantage in flatter Monuments like Paris-Roubaix because they can simply produce more watts. 

The estimated threshold power of riders like MVDP or WVA is 460–470 W. Contrast that with smaller riders like Tadej Pogačar or Remco Evenepoel, whose threshold power is around 400w. 

In flatter races, MVDP has the advantage over Evenepoel in terms of raw wattage. But on steep climbs, w/kg comes into play. This gives Evenepoel the upper hand because he is significantly lighter than MVDP. 

Evenepoel’s threshold: ~400w / ~61 kg = 6.5w/kg
MVDP’s threshold: ~470w / ~78 kg = 6w/kg

Liège–Bastogne–Liège

Liège–Bastogne–Liège is one of the oldest and most challenging one-day cycling races, spanning around 250 kilometers through the Ardennes region of Belgium. Known for its demanding terrain featuring numerous steep climbs and descents, the race often takes around 6 to 7 hours to complete. Its route includes iconic ascents such as the Côte de la Redoute and the Côte de Saint-Nicolas, and riders climb over 4,000 vertical meters.

Given the profile of Liège–Bastogne–Liège, it suits climbers who can maintain a strong pace on demanding ascents and have the stamina to endure long distances. It is unsurprising that this classic has been won by riders such as Remco Evenepoel, Tadej Pogačar, or Primož Roglič, who are among the top GC riders.

Paris-Roubaix

Paris-Roubaix is brutal because of its cobblestone sections and challenging terrain. Spanning around 250 kilometers, of which over 50km are on cobblestones, tests the bike-handling skills and resilience. The race typically finishes within six hours at the iconic Roubaix Velodrome, adding to the drama and spectacle.

This monument suits big, powerful riders who can sustain high absolute wattage and possess strong bike-handling skills. That is, classics specialists. Given the cobblestone sectors that define the race, riders must navigate the rough terrain with precision and power to maintain position and conserve energy for an eventual sprint finish or late race attack. 

Il Lombardia

Covering a distance of around 240 kilometers, Il Lombardia typically starts in Como and finishes in Bergamo. Il Lombardia is known for its challenging climbs. Riders typically complete it in around six to seven hours. The route includes iconic climbs such as the Madonna del Ghisallo and the Muro di Sormano, making it a true test of climbing ability and endurance.

Like LBL, the Giro di Lombardia favors climbers and punchers who have the endurance but also the downhill skills for technical descents. Lombardia offers several opportunities to attack, so endurance is particularly important. It is probably not surprising that the last three editions have been dominated by one of the most talented today’s riders, Tadej Pogačar.

Milano-Sanremo

Milan-San Remo covers a distance of approximately 300 kilometers. As the longest professional one-day race on the cycling calendar, it often takes around seven hours for riders to complete. The route includes iconic climbs such as the Passo del Turchino and the famous ascent of the Poggio before the thrilling descent into San Remo, making it a test of endurance, strategy, and punch with remaining energy reserves.

Milan-San Remo is hard to predict because it can end with a group sprint or a solo attack on the Poggio. However, it favors riders who possess a combination of endurance, racing finesse, power, and descending skills. Riders must have the stamina to endure the course while conserving energy for the decisive moments on the Poggio. The following descent also requires a high level of handling skills so that the leading rider avoids being caught by chasers.

Tour of Flanders

The Tour of Flanders is known for its cobbled climbs and challenging terrain. Spanning approximately 250 kilometers, the race usually finishes in Oudenaarde. The route features iconic cobbled sections such as the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, which demand technical skills, a strong punch, and, of course, endurance.

In the RVV, riders also need tactical awareness to have the best chance of victory. Like Milano-Sanremo, the RVV is a difficult race to predict. In recent years, it has been won more by classic riders like Mathieu van der Poel and Kasper Asgreen. However, last year, Tadej Pogačar broke that trend.

TIP: Read the previous article in this series: Are Cycling Monuments Faster Than Ever?

Preview picture source: Sirotti